Happy Birthday! My theory: because "heads" is always mentioned first ("Call it in the air, heads or tails," it is psychologically the more obvious choice. And "Rock" is chosen more because it's the easiest: you make no change to your hand, since both hands start out as a fist. So again, the fist "rock" is psychologically the most obvious (or safe) choice. What about "7"? Well, 7 has a long history as a very meaningful number in multiple cultures, so again, it's exposure to us in so many different areas of life could make it the first number that comes to mind. It's like my 19-year-old son who still remembers television jingles from his 7th-grade year in the U.S. If we hear something enough (or always first), we will subconsciously lean toward that answer as the most obious or safe one.
That’s why playtesting matters. Auctions, bidding, bluffing, hidden picks — all depend on decisions that look random but aren’t. If you don’t discover these biases in testing, thousands of players will discover them after launch.
Board game design isn’t about pushing through production. It’s about experimenting, uncovering the unexpected, and adapting fast.
1. I wonder what the mechanism is here. Is it a general tendency to pick "normal" values as one ages? Do people get feedback on previous choices, so that when they pick "weird" values like 1 someone will say "that's odd", and does this shift them towards a more normal response?
2. It would be interesting to know what happens if they pick more than one number / play at RPS / coin flip. Surely they don't just say "rock rock rock rock". But do they still show a preference for it, if they have to choose a few dozen times?
Happy Birthday! My theory: because "heads" is always mentioned first ("Call it in the air, heads or tails," it is psychologically the more obvious choice. And "Rock" is chosen more because it's the easiest: you make no change to your hand, since both hands start out as a fist. So again, the fist "rock" is psychologically the most obvious (or safe) choice. What about "7"? Well, 7 has a long history as a very meaningful number in multiple cultures, so again, it's exposure to us in so many different areas of life could make it the first number that comes to mind. It's like my 19-year-old son who still remembers television jingles from his 7th-grade year in the U.S. If we hear something enough (or always first), we will subconsciously lean toward that answer as the most obious or safe one.
Is it possible that 1 and 10 are picked less because of how people interpret "between 1 and 10"?
It would be interesting to do the study with French people, as in French the order is reversed (pile of face).
That’s why playtesting matters. Auctions, bidding, bluffing, hidden picks — all depend on decisions that look random but aren’t. If you don’t discover these biases in testing, thousands of players will discover them after launch.
Board game design isn’t about pushing through production. It’s about experimenting, uncovering the unexpected, and adapting fast.
1. I wonder what the mechanism is here. Is it a general tendency to pick "normal" values as one ages? Do people get feedback on previous choices, so that when they pick "weird" values like 1 someone will say "that's odd", and does this shift them towards a more normal response?
2. It would be interesting to know what happens if they pick more than one number / play at RPS / coin flip. Surely they don't just say "rock rock rock rock". But do they still show a preference for it, if they have to choose a few dozen times?
Really fascinating data! Kinda crazy there's such a strong trend across what should be arbitrary answers.
Seven? Maybe, deep inside, we're just two D6's.
Fascinating stats, Geoff.
Oh, and happy birthday!
Happy Birthday!
Happy birthday!
I’m a rebel, Dottie